Tagged: Analyzing, Backtesting, optimization
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ontheedge.
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16-01-2018 at 14:33 #218014
Dominique
MemberHi guys I’m new to this community, been here for a couple of weeks.
Been reading thru many posts here that really are gems for the EA community,
Thanks to all who share their knowledge here for free. 🙂Especially @greatness and @Walter Emslie
I’ve learned a lot in these weeks of reading and testing and have found some
balanced settings (Running 16 of them in live testing on a small account, see picture 1)
those roughly make a profit of 5% weekly with a low risk.
AND i use Metatrader’s VPS service because it’s easy and cheap!@Yannick thank you for your masterpiece, your EA’s are nothing like what I found out there.
maybe you can make Stickers of some of the topics with more quality educational posts in it?quivofx.com/boards/topic/bollinger-pro-ea-aud-usd-set-files/
quivofx.com/boards/topic/ichimoku-ea-pro-private-section/
quivofx.com/boards/topic/why-testing-with-broker-data-is-unreliable-and-dangerous/Some great examples that should be pinned!
So my thoughts are the we don’t have any topics here about EA Optimization and backtesting
and why not try to squeeze in some of the great valued info in one topic so new people
can start their learning (if they are interested)
I myself went basically all in to this, been reading and optimizing 24/7 for the past 3 weeks now
(no I’ve not been working at all, I saw the time invested in learning optimization as well spent)
And it is starting to pay off 🙂I really value education and I’m not interested in someones working SET files
because that will only work until the market change if you don’t adapt to new conditions it will fail
I wanna know HOW he made it working…I’m 36 and I’ve been self employed all my life but i really have a passion in helping others succeed and EA’s
might be my vehicle doing so. Trading have been my passion for over 10 years but that’s not passive,
last year I’ve really been looking for Passive opportunity’s and I found that EA’s will do the work
when they are of high quality like @Yannick’s.
I’ve found so much passion and inspiration in reading thru your guys stories,
really thank you!But enough of that, back to topic.
How I Started out, and how I think
First, I read the quivofx.com/school/ section for the basics.Secondly, you need quality tickdata 99.9%
The only way I got it to work was with Tickstory (full-version)
I’ve tried the lite-version but it did not support my MT4 build 1090
when that is cleared out the way its time for optimization.How I do it (as a noob), I put a lot of versions of a single EA
like Ichu on one low risk account. The lover TF’s (Time Frames) 1-5min is trading at 1-2%
low risk and 15-4h are at 3-5% medium risk
depending of the size of the account I currently hold witch is 500eur @FXCM currently.
(will check some other brokers that have been mentioned here for higher risk setting later)I start off with 1min TF the 5 min and so on just get some cashflow going.
I’m looking for a balance between PF, Profit and Drawdown, (see picture 2)
and I never go live with a setting under 90% Win ratio.I chunk the setting and i use Model: Control Points currently (as my computer is so useless)
later when i have a setting i believe in i go for full Every Tick setting and it has been working well for me.My checklist,
I start off with the standard setting of the EA and go to Strategy and Entry Filter
(in Ichu) and mark everything (see picture 3)
Then I’ll pic the most balanced one and go to the next sectionThe indicator setting (see picture 4)
(Some ppl don’t like this but it has worked well for me.)
When I started doing this my PF and Win Ratio went thru the roof!
The standard setting came out 1969 and I think the market has changed a bit since then.
by doing this I get the best settings for that currency pair.
on lower TF’s 1-5M I only backtest 3 months and re-optimize every 1-2months
15M i go back 6 months and H1-H4 one year.This is how I do it, remember I’m new and learning and testing so be
careful and do what works for you.BTW,
And I already have basic settings for Stoploss SL, Take Profit TP, Break Even BE,
and Trailing Stop TS. I will optimize these later as well.Then i go to ADX (pic 5), this one really made my PF go up but at the same time the overall profit can go down a lot.
I will basically look for PF over 2 on my lower risk TF’s 1-5M and over 5-10 on higher TF’s and risk.Then i check in the result between long and short positions
if the setting has 95% win-ratio on long i sometimes make it a Long position only setting.
(see pic 6)BE and TS, (pic 7)
This setting I keep tighter usually BE 12 on lower TF’s as I use them for cash-flow,
if I have larger setting in BE so it can “breathe” more I sometimes get killed by news,
I try to keep this tighten on lower TF’s.ATR, I get it to work sometimes but usually I’m having a hard time to
find a good balance between it and BE + TS maybe works better on higher TF’s.
If anyone knows how to use this properly pls add with some commentsDay and Time (pic 8) filter this will really boost your PF.
I started off with checking this site for volume during different hours (thx to @greatness)
(www.mataf.net/en/forex/tools/volatility)
I will look for a nice balance between Profit and PF on lower TF’s
and I never trade on Fridays on lower TF’s (NFP and very messy on lower TF’s)
1h and up I check Fridays as well and aim on higher PF with this setting.Then finally i do a 99.9% test and usually don’t go live under 90% WR
I do it sometimes at 88% if its a high profit setting on lower TF’s (low risk)What I’m currently looking for is analyzing software or web page so i can sync and analyze the LIVE data from the account,
If anyone know this type of service please comment.I hope this will help some people to start with optimizing their EA’s and this is
how I do it currently.
This will most likely change in the future but it’s a start. 🙂Pleas add your ways to do it if you wanna help the new guy.
Cheers!
Dominique
From Sweden16-01-2018 at 14:34 #218023Dominique
Memberand last pic 🙂
28-01-2018 at 18:26 #225827Mr Moon
MemberHi Dominique,
I use myfxbook to analyze my trading. It shows you a very detailed analysis and is free.
If you trade more EA´s on one account you can also analyze them individually by magic number (portfolio > custom analysis > magic).Thanks for the Optimization post!
28-01-2018 at 22:21 #225896greatness
Participant@ Dominique,
I wanted to give you some encouragement.
From my years in trading I learned one thing which applies to you as well. Those who are not going after shortcuts but are willing to learn everything and keep improving themselves have a high chance of becoming one of the very few who succeed. And yes, I’ve even trained an investment banker.I myself was quite lucky to have Statistics / Math background from university, so after just a few optimizations and backtests I could immediately see a connection between money management and statistics I learned at university. So, for me (after being scammed by 2 people in a short period of time) I had a solid foundation to fall back on. And I notice from your text that you’re missing a more ‘research’ based approach. This only implies that it will most likely take you more time to find those many ‘aha!’ learning moments in trading.
All in all, with your attitude you are way ahead of the 90% who are destined to lose.
Someone with your dedication and motivation should actually have a great mentor. You’d learn the right things MUCH MUCH faster and become succesful in several months.
I wish I could recommend anyone, but I can’t.
And I myself have just finished a few months of training an investment banker and have other commitments ahead of me. But you should really consider spending some time finding a mentor who has the skills to 1) teach 2) optimize and 3) teach every single aspect of trading. I really hope you’ll find someone. It would be a waste of someone with your eagerness to learn to waste time without a good mentor.31-01-2018 at 07:05 #227772Dominique
MemberThank you for your feedback!
It really helps a lot!Do you or anyone else know any books to read or do you have any fields that you could point to that would be helpful in algo trading? Webpages, courses, or specific areas for me or anyone else reading here?
Would LOVE to have a mentor as I know how valuable it is! I had a mentor for 6 months when I took my trading course In London many years ago but they didn’t believe in EA’S so I didn’t look for them until finding this forum.
If you come up with something or find some sort of mentoring program that you think fit, pls make an announcement here or so everyone can get use of it or if you want to get in contact you can find me at (dohax (a) protonmail (dot) com
(I hope it’s ok if I share my email​ address here, Yannick)I’ve only tested Ichu EA here on Quivofx witch is very advanced, can someone recommend any other EA to start learning optimization?
Was thinking of MA or BB, for lesser parameters?
Think I will go thru BB and analyze your and Walters conversations and check the SET files to understand the thinking behind it.
I will not create a high risk account (yet) that Walter has in that post more study the progress.Overall I’m extremely grateful and thankful for all the insights I’ve gotten from reading and searching for “clues” on how I need to be thinking regarding to algo trading. I went thru some posts several times to see if I missed something :joy: If I understand how you guys think and do stuff I know what to search for and then start the learning process.
I’m doing a backtest now back to 2016.01 and would like to organize the data in excel, thinking of keeping the data of one TF and Pair so I don’t need to optimize again and again, someone got any ideas? This is mostly to get thru the pairs and to find the most profitable one(s) , then later fine tune it with more filters like ADX and day/time, short/long, and so on.
My first test period was EA’s on the 1M and 5M chart just to get a feel for how things work. I know there is a lot of noise on those TF’s. I only back tested 3 months and thought that I could backtest it monthly, was up 20% during three weeks and then something happened when i fiddled whit broker time settings and it went down 19% during three days before I paused the EA.
I was risking 2% on every trade, then added funds to the account and forgot to change the % Risk per trade and the losses compounded.
I’ve downloaded fresh tickdata thru Tickstory and will start over again with higher TF’s and longer backtesting to find a better “balance”Lesson learnt 🙂
If i trade on lower TF’s and much higher probability setups. I will probably do some basic TA and draw trend lines, support and res levels and let it trade in between those areas, for semi automatic trading but that is another project when I add more computing power to my home. Will add 2 setups soon.
Downloaded Khan Academy (Android) for math studys and a friend will help me and point to were I need to focus and what could help whit my Algo trading 🙂
Again thank you for the encouragement, I will continue to update this post and anyone, feel free to add to it if you got some valuable info to share so others can adopt.
15-02-2018 at 20:36 #241546Dominique
MemberFrom a other thread thx to @junick
Hi all,
I would like to share with you my opinion on how to get profitable settings for ICHI (with all due respect to the really experienced guys here).
Believe it or not it is actually fairly easy:) – you just need to follow a proper protocol. So here is what I would suggest:
1. Choose a pair and time frame
2. Get decent data – the best way to go is 99% with variable spread. However, an easy (and still reliable way) is to open a DEMO account with Alpari and use their data – I`ve checked on several occasions 99% vs 90% Alpari over large number of trades and results were very similar (DD differed within 1%)
3. Turn true “Trade on new bar” – this way you can do your optimization on “Open prices only” – much faster and give similar results to tick data.
4. Optimize over a LARGE PERIOD (minimum 10 years – I prefer 15 years) – this way you know that your settings are NOT CURVE FITTED!!! That is very very important!
5. Choose settings (from the optimization results) with minimum DD and AT LEAST 200-250 trades – the more the better. If you have less trades for given settings be very careful with your Money management – the less trades you have for given set file the higher chance of the results being RANDOM!!! (Read “The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives” if you want to see the point here)
5. “Leave” time period for virtual forward test – so if you optimize lets say from Jan. 2000 to Jan 2015 and get your sweet set file with DD 4% and nice Profit factor – do a virtual forward test from Jan 2015 to Jan 2018 to see if your set file is still profitable. This way you have much higher chance to find reliable profi set!!!
6. Optimize only for 1 setting at a time with fixed lot and equal TP and SL. Probably only exception is the very first thing that you optimize for – “Type of strategy”, Entry filter and Exit strategy – you optimize those together. TURN OFF all other filters (ADX) and SL functions (ATR, Candle trail, ect). Once you get your profi set start optimizing 1 setting at a time – you can start with TP and SL. After that ADX, then trailing SL functions, time filters, ect but only one thing at a time. DO NOT USE MANY FILTERS – YOUR RISK OF GETTING CURVE FIITED settings INCREASES the more filters you use!!! FILTER CAN NOT TURN UNPROFITABLE STRATEGY INTO A PROFITABLE ONE – it can only improve DD and PF of a PROFITABLE STRATEGY!!!
7. Diversify your portfolio – get 10-20 profi sets on different pairs ideally with low correlation and dont risk more then 1 % of your account per trade (even less!). Dont be greedy – youll regret it when get into DD. IF you loose 50% of your account youll need 100% profit after that only to get back to the starting point!
8. Get several accounts with different brokers – you minimize your risk if something happens to a broker and also you can compare the execution b/n the different brokers (you run the same EA with same set files on all of them) – this way is much easier to notice dodgy practices (SL hunting, ect).I hope that will help all those new traders that are struggling with finding profitable settings. Many of the above ideas can be used for optimization of any other EA:)!
Best regards
Nikolay
15-02-2018 at 20:36 #241547Dominique
MemberHi Nikolaj, Thank you for your post! We have a general optimization thread here Feel free to add to it! I’m new to EA’s but have some trading experiance.
Hi all,
I would like to share with you my opinion on how to get profitable settings for ICHI (with all due respect to the really experienced guys here).
Believe it or not it is actually fairly easy:) – you just need to follow a proper protocol. So here is what I would suggest:
1. Choose a pair and time frameDo you check timframes under 15M or only 1H and 4H? Anyone here going for Daily or Weekly?
2. Get decent data – the best way to go is 99% with variable spread. However, an easy (and still reliable way) is to open a DEMO account with Alpari and use their data – I`ve checked on several occasions 99% vs 90% Alpari over large number of trades and results were very similar (DD differed within 1%)
Mine is from Dukaskopy thru Tickstory (fullversion) I only for 99.9% date when I test my results in Quant Analizer check Monte Carlo and to look for Day/time filters
3. Turn true “Trade on new bar” – this way you can do your optimization on “Open prices only” – much faster and give similar results to tick data.
4. Optimize over a LARGE PERIOD (minimum 10 years – I prefer 15 years) – this way you know that your settings are NOT CURVE FITTED!!! That is very very important!I usually go for 1000 trades history 3-5 years and then I check with out-data I’ll test the setting on non optizied period a other 3-5 period.
5. Choose settings (from the optimization results) with minimum DD and AT LEAST 200-250 trades – the more the better. If you have less trades for given settings be very careful with your Money management – the less trades you have for given set file the higher chance of the results being RANDOM!!! (Read “The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives” if you want to see the point here)
Thx, I usually go for Profit and PF but will try to focus more on DD because I hate losing, lol. Slow and steady usually wins the race
5. “Leave” time period for virtual forward test – so if you optimize lets say from Jan. 2000 to Jan 2015 and get your sweet set file with DD 4% and nice Profit factor – do a virtual forward test from Jan 2015 to Jan 2018 to see if your set file is still profitable. This way you have much higher chance to find reliable profi set!!!
Thx, I usullay optimize the closer period and do the backtest on the older period, maybe it’s better to turn it around as markets changes, thx
6. Optimize only for 1 setting at a time with fixed lot and equal TP and SL. Probably only exception is the very first thing that you optimize for – “Type of strategy”, Entry filter and Exit strategy – you optimize those together. TURN OFF all other filters (ADX) and SL functions (ATR, Candle trail, ect). Once you get your profi set start optimizing 1 setting at a time – you can start with TP and SL. After that ADX, then trailing SL functions, time filters, ect but only one thing at a time. DO NOT USE MANY FILTERS – YOUR RISK OF GETTING CURVE FIITED settings INCREASES the more filters you use!!! FILTER CAN NOT TURN UNPROFITABLE STRATEGY INTO A PROFITABLE ONE – it can only improve DD and PF of a PROFITABLE STRATEGY!!!
Thx, will try this.
7. Diversify your portfolio – get 10-20 profi sets on different pairs ideally with low correlation and dont risk more then 1 % of your account per trade (even less!). Dont be greedy – youll regret it when get into DD. IF you loose 50% of your account youll need 100% profit after that only to get back to the starting point!
Yes, the % Is very important, I had profitable setting for weeks then the losses compounded and weeks winning were lost in days (I added funds to the account and forgot to change % risk per trade
8. Get several accounts with different brokers – you minimize your risk if something happens to a broker and also you can compare the execution b/n the different brokers (you run the same EA with same set files on all of them) – this way is much easier to notice dodgy practices (SL hunting, ect).
Do you use ECN accounts? I’ve been checking Pepperstone and FXopen, they seems legit. any tips?
I hope that will help all those new traders that are struggling with finding profitable settings. Many of the above ideas can be used for optimization of any other EA:)!
Best regards
Nikolay[/quote]
21-02-2018 at 22:01 #247683ontheedge
ParticipantWhat I’m currently looking for is analyzing software or web page so i can sync and analyze the LIVE data from the account,
If anyone know this type of service please comment.I also use Myfxbook.com or Fxblue.com. They are great tools.
Do you or anyone else know any books to read or do you have any fields that you could point to that would be helpful in algo trading? Webpages, courses, or specific areas for me or anyone else reading here?
A website I really like is bettersystemtrader.com it will also have all the books you could ever want to read about trading there.
I want to throw a word of caution out there regarding Tick Data testing & Optimization.
Tick Data testing is not really applicable to MT4 regradless of the the hype around tick testing. First, ticks don’t happen in the future as they did in the past.
Second most EA’s use closing price so the number of ticks don’t have any impact on when the actual trade was taken. So unless your using an EA the actually measures Bid/Ask spread or speed of ticks or some other “Tick” related data, 99.99% tick data is not crucial to building or backtesting profitable systems.
Thirdly, MT4 doesn’t store tick data anywhere unless you set it with plugins to do so, I use Tickstory as well but I only use the tick data to create non time based charts, otherwise 1minute bars are enough without using Birts plug in for actual ticks.
Lastly, Volume or Tick Volume, varies with every broker so using Tickstory and testing a Tick Volume Strategy with said data, can and will give you vastly different results than what you would get with your broker.
Backtesting, when backtesing use larger sized step variables rather than all the possible variations. Additionally, using the average of variables in a range of good variables will give you more realistic results as opposed to using the best variables. Using the best results often results in over optimization which is generally not a robust system.
One thing I wish @Yannik would incorporate is exits after N-bars or exits based on indicators. I have found these to be more powerful than fixed TP or SL. With fixed TP we are trying to impose a view on the market rather than having an opportunity to take as little or as much as the market offers. I do not find ATR to be a reliable trailing stop.
I’ve go on long enough, maybe there’s some ideas in there for other’s to consider.
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